For the last recent months, British Columbia has made successful steps in combatting the spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, many people, especially the young, are not taking proper precautions, and they are even attending parties and events. By doing this, they are increasing their contact with one another, which is the leading cause of spreading the virus. On Monday, the health official, Dr. Bonnie Henry, and B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix warned the province that they might suffer an “explosive growth” in cases as per the latest COVID-19 modeling data.
Henry said the latest dynamic compartmental modeling projections showed the province was starting to see an upward bend of their curve. He said there is a higher probability of having explosive growth in their outbreak there in B.C. Besides, he said if they’re not careful in how they progress over the summer, the projections offered a glimpse at what the province could experience going forward, depending on how much contact residents had with one another. Officials have said they believed B.C. could maintain a manageable caseload if the public kept their contact rate at 60 to 65 percent of the pre-pandemic normal.
Furthermore, the latest modeling shows that the number of new infections generated from each new case has surged to more than one, which is considered the threshold for sustained growth in new cases. Henry said that it was a matter of concern because they cannot stop the outbreak. Fortunately, Henry said the number of hospitalizations, which was considered one of the most critical metrics for measuring the seriousness of the pandemic in B.C., had remained relatively stable. As of Monday, there were 16 people in the hospital, including four in intensive care or critical care units.
The latest modeling has also shown the overwhelming effects of the virus at care homes facilities. The outbreak has resulted in a case fatality rate of roughly 20 percent, indicating that one in every five people infected died of the virus. The death rate was even higher – at 22.4 percent. In comparison, the province’s overall case fatality rate was 6.1 percent. This is considered slightly lower than the national average of about eight percent. The 1,028 cases associated with outbreaks had an overall fatality rate of 12.9 percent. Officials said instances that weren’t associated with an outbreak were significantly less lethal, accounting for 50 deaths out of 1,950 infections.
One of the challenges the health department is facing is tracing the contacts. According to Henry, the latest cases identified in the province had a large number of contacts again. As a result, the province no longer has safe connections, and that is what is spreading the virus. Over the past three days, B.C. has recorded 102 new cases, together with 51 that were identified over a single 24-hour period. This the largest daily jump in cases since May 26. The province’s active caseload – calculated by taking the total number of recorded cases and subtracting the number of recoveries and deaths – has also increased from 152 at the end of June to 254.
A COVID-19 population survey carried out by Henry and Dix shows that nearly half of survey respondents reported undergoing worsening mental health during this crisis. Almost a third reported finding it harder to meet their financial essentials. Additionally, the survey showed the vast majority of people are practicing personal preventive hygiene and avoiding gatherings, while only two-thirds stay home when they feel sick. Officials said that was a major issue that needed addressing, as keeping sick people away from others was fundamental in stopping the virus.