According to a new survey by Nanos Research, Canadians are more likely to indicate that they are not open to voting for the Conservatives in the next federal election than they are to say they are open to doing so. Nevertheless, this is not the case when looking at male voters and the people who stay in the Conservative heartland of the Prairies.
This survey was carried out between Aug. 31 and Sept. 3. The findings were grounded on an RDD dual frame hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,039 Canadians, 18 years of age or older. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. It examined openness to voting for the Official Opposition under newly installed leader Erin O’Toole. The 1,039 participants were asked one question: “Now that Erin O’Toole is the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, are you open, somewhat open, somewhat not open or not open to voting Conservative [in] the next federal election?”
Forty-four percent of respondents selected the unopen response. About 8 percent stated that they were somewhat not open to voting for the Conservatives, while 27percent stated they were open. At the same, time12 percent stated that they were somehow open to the idea, and 9 percent indicated they were not sure. 63.2 percent of respondents reported being either open or somewhat open to the party. This is approximately matching with the Conservatives’ vote share in the 2019 federal election in the region, where they won 54 out of 62 seats.
Nanos examined openness or somewhat openness to voting for the Conservatives with O’Toole as a leader at 38.6% in Ontario, 35.9% in British Columbia, 29% in Atlantic Canada, and 27.7% in Quebec. These categories are approximately matching with the party’s vote share in last year’s election in Atlantic Canada and B.C. There was a suggestion of a measure of support for O’Toole’s Conservatives in the crucial swing ridings in those two provinces higher than the party’s 2019 performance in Ontario and Quebec. Nationwide, ahead of the Liberals’ 33.1%, the Conservatives won 34.3% of the popular vote in the 2019 federal election.
The percentage of men reporting being open or somewhat open to voting for the Conservatives than not was high at 48.4% compared to 44.5%. Approximately 59% of women stated that they were not open to voting Conservative versus 31.1% who said they were. Opposition to voting for the Conservatives was revealed to be high according to age, with 48.5% of interviewees aged 18 to 34 telling Nanos Research they were either not open or somewhat not open to doing so, in comparison to 51.2% of those aged 35 to 54 and 54.6% of those aged 55 and older.