November 3 will be a great day for the American as they will determine who will lead them. So many things have happened since the last election, and it’s up to them to decide the type of leadership they want. In 2016, the battle was between Hillary Clinton and Trump and the latter beat the former.
Now, Trump will face another candidate, and from the look of things, he might not make it. According to statewide surveys, Joe Biden holds a seven-point lead over Trump. Research suggests Biden has a roughly three-in-four shot of winning the White House. By this time in 2016, Clinton was leading Trump by about two points, but those numbers swung wildly throughout the campaign. In the end, Clinton won the popular vote by two points but lost the Electoral College.
- Anticipated votes per state
There’s no doubt Biden will win in Pennsylvania even though Trump won in 2016. Biden was born in this state, and he is keen to win it back. He recently held a CNN town hall there. Polls suggest Biden has a marginal but stable lead in Pennsylvania, and Democrats are breaking records with mail-in voting registration. The state’s 20 electoral votes could play a decisive role on November 3.
Democrats are also looking to win in Wisconsin, which was reliably Democratic until Trump carried by less than one point in 2016. Nevada may represent a Democratic weak spot. Trump has held multiple rallies and poured millions of ad dollars into Nevada, a reliably Democratic state that Clinton carried in 2016 and Democrats handily won in the 2018 midterms.
Arizona, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina, which are the four traditionally red states are also highly competitive this election. Currently, Arizona is a leaning Democrat, Georgia and North Carolina toss-ups and Texas is a leans Republican.
Research has shown that Trump is likely to lose his support in the suburbs.
- Follow the Money
While Trump once held a sizeable lead over Biden in cash-on-hand, Biden has lessened that gap. This is because money plays a major role in U.S. politics. Biden broke records in August by raising US$364 million. This is highly more than Trump’s $61 million contributed in the same month. Following the announcement of Kamala Harris as his vice-presidential running mate, Biden’s campaign also saw a US$26-million boost. However, Trump still holds the advantage. According to an analysis by NPR, Trump and the Republican Party have raised US$1.33 billion total over Biden and the Democrats’ US$990 million.
- RBG’S Death
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the Supreme Court Justice, was an icon of women’s rights in America. Her demise has thrown a curveball into the U.S. election. Trump said that by Saturday, he would nominate a conservative judge to replace Ginsburg.
Though the Republican-controlled Senate carries enough votes to push through the vote, barring any defections, Democrats said that they would challenge the nomination in the Senate. The Republicans indicated that they are planning to hold a vote before the election. There will be an imbalance that some on the left fear could have major implications for issues such as reproductive and LGBT rights after the appointment of a right-leaning justice would give the U.S. Supreme Court a conservative majority for years to come.
- Joe Biden supporters
Cindy McCain, the widow of late 2008 presidential nominee John McCain, is one of Biden’s supporters. A former adviser to U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence, who served on the White House coronavirus task force, is also backing Biden. Lastly, he is supported by a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security, and former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci.